Forecasting Forex Market with Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Foreign Exchange Market, called Forex is a huge market of currency trading in which the commodity is money itself. In the currencies market, traders are buying and selling foreign currencies. They are trading dollars for Euros, pounds for yen, and so forth. We trade currencies always in pairs, so although we trade for example pounds for dollars, we either sell a pair GBP/USD or buy it. Buying is called “going long” and selling “going short”.
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National currencies fluctuate from day to day based on predictions of the nation’s gross domestic product and other factors. As with the stock market, the goal is to buy low and sell high; buy a lot of a particular currency when it’s weak, then sell it when it becomes stronger.
Although we talk of “buying” and “selling” dollars, Euros, pounds, yen and francs, the transactions performed in the Forex are not literal. That is, if you want to buy 10,000 pounds, you don’t have to withdraw the equivalent U.S. dollars from your bank account and swap them out for a big stack of pounds. Everything is done on paper only, though the resulting profits and losses are real.
To know when the right time to enter a trade is we forecast Forex markets. It is not easy and nobody gets it 100% right. With the proper discipline and money management being 65% right can be very profitable.
There are two main ways of forecasting the Forex Market: fundamental and technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis means forecasting the market based on external factors, like political moves, government involvement and social movements. A currency rate could drop because a country’s government is unstable at the moment, or increase because the country has just elected a popular new leader. Anything that can affect a nation’s economy can affect the exchange rates, and that’s what a fundamental analyst uses to guess the Forex market’s future.
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To be good at fundamental analysis someone must know a particular country in-depth, which is hard to do for more than a few countries at a time. (It becomes even more complicated when trying to forecast the euro, since several different countries use that currency.) But having that kind of intricate knowledge makes it much easier to forecast Forex trends.
The technical analysis means examining past market actions and using that data to predict the future. Previous trends in most areas of life are usually good indicators of the future; Forex is no different. People have not changed much in the decades since the Forex market was created. People still buy and sell and react to stimuli in much the same way as they did 50 years ago.
Since Forex rates change constantly throughout the day, every day, looking at all the years of past data can be daunting. Smart analysts learned to look at the big picture, to skip the minor details and examine trends over a longer period of time.
Generally technical analysis is better for a day trading and fundamental analysis for intraday trading, but many traders use a mixture of both.
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